Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
Taylor Fritz
USA
Taylor Fritz
#7ATP
1871ELO
1824Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$31MCAREER
28 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWWL
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Jack Draper
GBR
Jack Draper
#160ATP
1808ELO
1654Grass ELO
$305kYTD
$8.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLLLWWWL
Fritz T.
vs
Draper J.

Taylor Fritz faces Jack Draper in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Taylor Fritz is the paper favourite — ranked #7, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage — but Jack Draper has won 3 of their 5 previous meetings.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Fritz T.73%
Draper J.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fritz T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fritz T.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Draper J.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.1+170 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Grass Elo 1654
5.8Overall Elo 1871
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1808
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.68 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
5.8Won 64% in GBR (39)
Country comfort
7.0Home country · 11/22 here
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Fritz T.Stable
Draper J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

20 vs 8 matches

Statistics

This season
Fritz T.Draper J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
69%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
80%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
71%
68%
Return points won·Even
33%
32%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
15.9
7.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Fritz T.serving97% hold

wins 79% of points on serve vs Draper J.

Draper J.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Fritz T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Fritz T.Draper J.
Clutch Rating·Even
87
88
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Clear edge
60
83
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Even
99
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on grass

Fritz T.Draper J.
100
Serve
—
11
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load
Fritz T.Draper J.
Freshness·Clear edge
59
71

Fritz T.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 94 games (7d) · Draper J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

2–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersR16hardJack Draper7-5 6-4
2024-10-28Paris MastersR32hardJack Draper7-6(6) 4-6 6-4
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsR32clayTaylor Fritz6-7(3) 6-3 6-2
2024-04-15MunichQFclayTaylor Fritz4-6 6-3 7-6(1)
2022-06-13Queen's ClubR32grassJack Draper6-3 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.[18]
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.[21]
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.[26]
5-73-6
Gaston H.[5]
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.[29]
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell[32]
4-64-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-46-3
Travaglia S.[16]
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.[23]
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
4-66-763-6
Faria J.[2]
Sakamoto R.[27]
7-634-66-36-4
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.[21]
6-15-76-23-61-6
Smith C.
Zheng M.[26]
4-66-42-63-6
Gaston H.[5]
Echargui M.[29]
6-15-76-26-4
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-754-64-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Boyer T.
5-77-646-723-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Virtanen O.
6-44-64-65-7
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.[28]
6-46-46-4
Basing M.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-67-56-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-47-650-66-2
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
6-46-27-5
Mcdonald M.[13]
C. O'Connell[32]
6-36-46-4
Gaubas V.[14]
Lajovic D.[22]
3-66-43-66-36-4
Safiullin R.[15]
Kym J.
4-67-623-67-666-4
Zhou Y.
Harris B.[23]
6-16-722-63-6