Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo FicovichWimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Round
#246ATP
1421ELO
1411Grass ELO
27 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWWLLLLW
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
grass
#198ATP
1431ELO
1426Grass ELO
$100kYTD
$984kCAREER
29 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLLLWL
Smith K.
vs
Ficovich J.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:37 UTC
Smith K.49%
Ficovich J.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Grass Elo 1410
Surface ELO
5.2+16 Grass Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1421
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1430
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.23 of last 7 on grass
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Smith K.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
75%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
54%
Service points won·Even
67%
63%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.8
5.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Smith K.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Ficovich J.

Ficovich J.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Smith K.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
22
18
Break points saved·Slight edge
84
76
Break points won·Slight edge
3
9
Deciding sets·Slight edge
40
32
Tiebreaks·Even
4
6

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
78
89

Smith K.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d) · Ficovich J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.