Kaichi Uchida vs Bernard Tomic — Wimbledon

Wimbledon · ATP
Kaichi Uchida
JPN
Kaichi Uchida
#254ATP
1360ELO
1393Grass ELO
31 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLWL
—
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
grass
Bernard Tomic
AUS
Bernard Tomic
#192ATP
1485ELO
1517Grass ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLWLWW
Uchida K.
vs
Tomic B.

Kaichi Uchida faces Bernard Tomic in the Wimbledon match on grass. Bernard Tomic holds the paper edge — ranked #192, a roughly 120-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC
Uchida K.20%
Tomic B.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Tomic B. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Uchida K.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Tomic B.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Grass Elo 1393
Surface ELO
6.6+124 Grass Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1360
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1485
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.73 of last 8 on grass
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 8
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
5.4Won 56% in GBR (39)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Uchida K.Cooling
Tomic B.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Uchida K.Tomic B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
54%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
33%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
65%
Aces / match·Even
4.4
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Uchida K.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Tomic B.

Tomic B.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Uchida K.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Uchida K.Tomic B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
8
53
Break points saved·Clear edge
73
92
Break points won·Even
2
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
3
76
Tiebreaks·Dominant
29
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Uchida K.Tomic B.
Freshness·Clear edge
95
83

Uchida K.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Tomic B.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.