Luca Nardi vs Otto Virtanen — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
ITA
Luca Nardi
#169ATP
1601ELO
1436Grass ELO
$210kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLWLWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Otto Virtanen
FIN
Otto Virtanen
#137ATP
1694ELO
1672Grass ELO
$193kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWLLWW
Nardi L.
vs
Virtanen O.

Luca Nardi faces Otto Virtanen in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Otto Virtanen holds the paper edge — ranked #137, a roughly 240-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Nardi L.13%
Virtanen O.87%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Virtanen O. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nardi L.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Virtanen O.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Grass Elo 1436
Surface ELO
7.9+235 Grass Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1600
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1694
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
3.93 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Nardi L.Rising
Virtanen O.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
Nardi L.Virtanen O.
1st serve in·Even
64%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.2
8.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nardi L.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Virtanen O.

Virtanen O.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Nardi L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Nardi L.Virtanen O.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
33
45
Break points saved·Even
92
94
Break points won·Clear edge
15
3
Deciding sets·Slight edge
42
48
Tiebreaks·Dominant
20
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Nardi L.Virtanen O.
Freshness·Dominant
79
53

Nardi L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d) · Virtanen O.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 124 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.