Luca Nardi vs Otto VirtanenWimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#164ATP
1585ELO
1415Grass ELO
$213kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
23 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
#114ATP
1706ELO
1688Grass ELO
$214kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLLW
Nardi L.
4-6 4-6
Virtanen O.
Nardi L.
440
Virtanen O.
662

Otto Virtanen defeated Luca Nardi in the semifinals of Wimbledon, winning 6-4, 6-4 on the grass courts. Virtanen secured two service breaks to Nardi's one, advancing to the next round.

Key context

  • Match story: Otto Virtanen edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
62%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Even
64%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.1
9.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
9
12
Break points saved·Even
84
82
Break points won·Slight edge
8
1
Deciding sets·Clear edge
14
29
Tiebreaks·Even
14
16

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Nardi L.19%
Virtanen O.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Virtanen O. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Grass Elo 1456
Surface ELO
6.4+114 Grass Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1624
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1708
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
2.12 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
85

Virtanen O.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
35°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw