Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
Alexis Galarneau
CAN
Alexis Galarneau
#184ATP
1588ELO
1529Grass ELO
$162kYTD
$822kCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWLLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
GBR
Oliver Tarvet
#349ATP
1504ELO
1544Grass ELO
22 yrs
Last 10
WLLWWLLLWL
Galarneau A.
vs
Tarvet O.

Alexis Galarneau faces Oliver Tarvet in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Oliver Tarvet is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 64 — but Alexis Galarneau arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on grass to Oliver Tarvet's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Galarneau A.56%
Tarvet O.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Galarneau A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Tarvet O.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Grass Elo 1529
Surface ELO
5.2+15 Grass Elo edge
6.1Overall Elo 1588
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1504
2.2Trails 0–2 on grass
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on grass
6.26 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
8.7Home country · 7/9 here
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Galarneau A.Stable
Tarvet O.Not enough recent matches

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

34 vs 1 matches

Statistics

This season
Galarneau A.Tarvet O.
1st serve in·Even
60%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
67%
Return points won·Clear edge
40%
23%
Break points saved·Dominant
57%
100%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.9
5.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Galarneau A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Tarvet O.

Tarvet O.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Galarneau A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load
Galarneau A.Tarvet O.
Freshness·Clear edge
70
84

Galarneau A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d) · Tarvet O.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonQ2grassOliver Tarvet6-3 6-2

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-606-67
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-75-6
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-24-5
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-32-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
—
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
—
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
—
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
—
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.