Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt — Wimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Round

GBR

Oliver Tarvet

#344ATP

1504ELO

1544Grass ELO

22 yrs

Last 10

LLWWLLLWLW

—

Sets

Monday, 22 June 2026 · 12:30

grass

AUS

Alex Bolt

#155ATP

1601ELO

1580Grass ELO

$125kYTD

$2.2MCAREER

33 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LWLLWLWLLL

Tarvet O.

Bolt A.

Oliver Tarvet faces Alex Bolt in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Alex Bolt holds the paper edge — ranked #155, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:37 UTC

Tarvet O.27%

Bolt A.73%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bolt A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Stage: Oliver Tarvet defends last year's round of 64; Alex Bolt defends last year's round of 128.
Surface form: Both 2 of 6 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Tarvet O.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Bolt A.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.5Grass Elo 1544

Surface ELO

5.5+36 Grass Elo edge

3.8Overall Elo 1504

ELO gap

6.2Overall Elo 1601

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.55 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

4.55 of last 10 on grass

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

8.5Home country · 6/8 here

Country comfort

5.8Won 62% in GBR (24)

Context

6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tarvet O.Not enough recent matches

Bolt A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

1 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season

Tarvet O.Bolt A.

1st serve in·Even

63%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

79%

73%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

47%

53%

Service points won·Even

67%

66%

Return points won·Clear edge

23%

35%

Break points saved·Dominant

100%

68%

Aces / match·Dominant

5.0

8.4

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.0

1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Tarvet O.serving91% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Bolt A.

Bolt A.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Tarvet O.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load

Tarvet O.Bolt A.

Freshness·Even

Tarvet O.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Bolt A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

27°CClear

Wind 19 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.