Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final
Mcdonald M.
Mackenzie Mcdonald faces Roberto Carballes Baena in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Mackenzie Mcdonald holds the paper edge — ranked #144, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mackenzie Mcdonald comes in with 6 days of rest and 51 games in 14d, vs Roberto Carballes Baena's 4 and 185.
- Last match: Roberto Carballes Baena dropped just 6 games past M. Ceban.
- Stage: Mackenzie Mcdonald defends last year's round of 128; Roberto Carballes Baena defends last year's round of 128.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMcdonald M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Carballes Baena R.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.