Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
Gauthier Onclin
BEL
Gauthier Onclin
#183ATP
1579ELO
1539Grass ELO
$98kYTD
$614kCAREER
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWLLLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Shintaro Mochizuki
JPN
Shintaro Mochizuki
#150ATP
1456ELO
1511Grass ELO
$236kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLLLLL
Onclin G.
vs
Mochizuki S.

Gauthier Onclin faces Shintaro Mochizuki in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Shintaro Mochizuki is the paper favourite — ranked #150, defending last year's round of 64 — but Gauthier Onclin arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on grass to Shintaro Mochizuki's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Onclin G.77%
Mochizuki S.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Onclin G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Onclin G.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Mochizuki S.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+27 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Grass Elo 1511
6.5Overall Elo 1579
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1456
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.06 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Onclin G.Stable
Mochizuki S.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

19 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Onclin G.Mochizuki S.
1st serve in·Even
54%
52%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
56%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.7
6.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Onclin G.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Mochizuki S.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Onclin G.

Serve advantage — Onclin G.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Onclin G.Mochizuki S.
Clutch Rating·Even
48
49
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
74
Break points won·Dominant
17
55
Deciding sets·Dominant
74
41
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
57
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Onclin G.Mochizuki S.
Freshness·Clear edge
90
78

Onclin G.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Mochizuki S.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-606-67
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-75-6
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-24-5
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-32-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
—
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
—
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
—
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
—
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.