Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon — Wimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Round

FRA

Hugo Gaston

#117ATP

1637ELO

1543Grass ELO

$353kYTD

$4.0MCAREER

25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LLWLLLWWLL

—

Sets

Monday, 22 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

ARG

Lautaro Midon

1538ELO

1469Grass ELO

22 yrs · 180 cm

Last 10

LWLWWWLWLW

Gaston H.

Midon L.

Hugo Gaston faces Lautaro Midon in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Hugo Gaston holds the paper edge — defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:37 UTC

Gaston H.78%

Midon L.22%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Gaston H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Hugo Gaston comes in with 5 days of rest and 34 games in 14d, vs Lautaro Midon's 16 and 0.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Hugo Gaston has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 73 vs 41).
Stage: Hugo Gaston defends last year's round of 128.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Gaston H.

6.5

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Midon L.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

5.9+74 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.1Grass Elo 1469

6.2Overall Elo 1637

ELO gap

3.8Overall Elo 1538

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.66 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

6.0Reached the R128 here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Gaston H.Stable

Midon L.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season

Gaston H.Midon L.

1st serve in·Slight edge

53%

60%

1st serve points won·Even

68%

64%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

47%

Service points won·Even

59%

57%

Return points won·Even

40%

44%

Break points saved·Even

55%

53%

Aces / match·Even

2.6

3.1

Double faults / match·Even

2.2

2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Gaston H.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Midon L.

Midon L.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Gaston H.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Gaston H.Midon L.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Clear edge

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Gaston H.Midon L.

Freshness·Clear edge

100

Gaston H.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Midon L.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

26°CClear

Wind 18 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.