Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
POR
Jaime Faria
#97ATP
1709ELO
1617Grass ELO
$527kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWWWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
JPN
Rei Sakamoto
#148ATP
1641ELO
1521Grass ELO
$231kYTD
$490kCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWWWLW
Faria J.
vs
Sakamoto R.

Jaime Faria faces Rei Sakamoto in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Jaime Faria holds the paper edge — ranked #97, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Faria J.76%
Sakamoto R.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Faria J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Faria J.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Sakamoto R.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.2+96 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Grass Elo 1521
5.8Overall Elo 1709
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1641
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.28 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Faria J.Stable
Sakamoto R.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

42 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
Faria J.Sakamoto R.
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Even
59%
63%
Aces / match·Even
5.7
6.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Faria J.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Sakamoto R.

Sakamoto R.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Faria J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Faria J.Sakamoto R.
Clutch Rating·Even
54
51
Break points saved·Slight edge
76
87
Break points won·Clear edge
22
8
Deciding sets·Slight edge
81
92
Tiebreaks·Dominant
75
35

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Faria J.Sakamoto R.
Freshness·Even
83
83

Faria J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Sakamoto R.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.
5-73-6
Gaston H.
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
4-64-6
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
6-46-3
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
Faria J.
Sakamoto R.
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.
Smith C.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Echargui M.
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Boyer T.
Budkov Kjaer N.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Bertola R.
Sweeny D.
Barrios Vera T.
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
C. O'Connell
Gaubas V.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Kym J.
Zhou Y.
Harris B.