Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer — Wimbledon Qualifying Round
SWE
Basilashvili N.
Nikoloz Basilashvili faces Elias Ymer in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Nikoloz Basilashvili holds the paper edge — ranked #118, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 64. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Basilashvili N. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Nikoloz Basilashvili has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 73 vs Elias Ymer's 48).
- Head-to-head: Nikoloz Basilashvili leads the head-to-head 2–1, 1–0 on grass. Last met at Doha 2026.
- Stage: Nikoloz Basilashvili defends last year's round of 64.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBasilashvili N.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d) · Ymer E.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Doha | Q1 | hard | Elias Ymer | 6-3 6-5 RET |
| 2022-02-14 | Doha | R16 | hard | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2018-06-18 | Halle | Q1 | grass | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 6-4 6-3 |