Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Felipe Meligeni Alves — Wimbledon Qualifying Round
Mcdonald M.
Mackenzie Mcdonald faces Felipe Meligeni Alves in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Mackenzie Mcdonald holds the paper edge — ranked #128, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Mcdonald M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Felipe Meligeni Alves's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Mackenzie Mcdonald's has cooled.
- Stage: Mackenzie Mcdonald defends last year's round of 128.
- Fatigue load: Mackenzie Mcdonald carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMcdonald M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.