Rio Noguchi vs Luca Nardi — Wimbledon Qualifying Round
ITA
Noguchi R.
Rio Noguchi faces Luca Nardi in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Luca Nardi holds the paper edge — ranked #173, defending last year's round of 128. Recent grass form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:37 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Nardi L. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Rio Noguchi comes in with 5 days of rest and 137 games in 14d, vs Luca Nardi's 6 and 105.
- Stage: Luca Nardi defends last year's round of 128.
- Surface form: Both 2 of 4 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNoguchi R.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 81 games (7d) · Nardi L.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.