Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
Hugo Gaston
FRA
Hugo Gaston
#117ATP
1637ELO
1543Grass ELO
$353kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLLWWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
ITA
Federico Cina
#180ATP
1583ELO
1491Grass ELO
$293kYTD
$533kCAREER
19 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLWWWW
Gaston H.
vs
Cina F.

Hugo Gaston faces Federico Cina in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Hugo Gaston holds the paper edge — ranked #117, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Gaston H.66%
Cina F.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Gaston H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gaston H.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Cina F.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.6+52 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Grass Elo 1491
5.7Overall Elo 1637
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1583
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.47 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Gaston H.Stable
Cina F.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
Gaston H.Cina F.
1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
3.3
Double faults / match·Even
2.2
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gaston H.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Cina F.

Cina F.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Gaston H.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Gaston H.Cina F.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
73
46
Break points saved·Even
91
87
Break points won·Clear edge
57
33
Deciding sets·Clear edge
76
62
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
28

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Gaston H.Cina F.
Freshness·Even
88
87

Gaston H.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Cina F.: 9 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 50%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-5
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-61-0
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-62-3
Tseng C.
Heide G.
1-1
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-62
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
1-2
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-5
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-5
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
1-1
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
1-0
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
1-1
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-640-0
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
2-2
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-42-2
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6