Aziz Dougaz vs Rei SakamotoWimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#690ATP
1390ELO
1366Grass ELO
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
#165ATP
1608ELO
1467Grass ELO
$235kYTD
$494kCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWLLLWW
Dougaz A.
4-6 4-6
Sakamoto R.
Dougaz A.
440
Sakamoto R.
662

Rei Sakamoto defeated Aziz Dougaz in the semifinals of Wimbledon, winning 6-4, 6-4 on the grass courts. Sakamoto hit 11 aces to Dougaz's 8 and converted 33% of break points, while both players committed 4 double faults. Sakamoto won 82% of first-serve points and broke Dougaz's serve once en route to the victory.

Key context

  • Match story: Rei Sakamoto edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
71%
59%
Aces / match·Even
6.5
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
8
49
Break points saved·Even
86
87
Break points won·Slight edge
2
8
Deciding sets·Dominant
2
93
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
4
23

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Dougaz A.11%
Sakamoto R.89%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sakamoto R. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.5Grass Elo 1471
Surface ELO
5.5+36 Grass Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1488
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1654
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.81 of last 8 on grass
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
69
86

Dougaz A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d) · Sakamoto R.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
36°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 36%

Draw