Nicolas Mejia vs Gustavo Heide — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
Nicolas Mejia
COL
Nicolas Mejia
#168ATP
1486ELO
1443Grass ELO
$141kYTD
$522kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLWLWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
BRA
Gustavo Heide
#138ATP
1639ELO
1489Grass ELO
$139kYTD
$581kCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWLL
Mejia N.
vs
Heide G.

Nicolas Mejia faces Gustavo Heide in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Gustavo Heide holds the paper edge — ranked #138, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Mejia N.21%
Heide G.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Heide G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mejia N.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Heide G.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.4Grass Elo 1443
Surface ELO
5.6+46 Grass Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1486
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1639
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.42 of last 5 on grass
Surface form
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Mejia N.Sliding
Heide G.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
Mejia N.Heide G.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.7
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mejia N.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Heide G.

Heide G.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Mejia N.

Serve advantage — Heide G.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Mejia N.Heide G.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
22
47
Break points saved·Clear edge
74
90
Break points won·Even
6
10
Deciding sets·Dominant
32
57
Tiebreaks·Dominant
36
77

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Mejia N.Heide G.
Freshness·Dominant
85
58

Mejia N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Heide G.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 110 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.