Mark Lajal vs Luka PavlovicWimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Round
#166ATP
1618ELO
1595Grass ELO
$96kYTD
$653kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWLWWL
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
grass
#219ATP
1460ELO
1458Grass ELO
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWWWLLL
Lajal M.
vs
Pavlovic L.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Lajal M.83%
Pavlovic L.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Lajal M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.7+138 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Grass Elo 1458
7.0Overall Elo 1618
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1460
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.84 of last 6 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Lajal M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
45%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.4
10.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Lajal M.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Pavlovic L.

Pavlovic L.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Lajal M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
45
61
Break points saved·Even
89
93
Break points won·Slight edge
13
24
Deciding sets·Clear edge
48
72
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
81
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
98

Lajal M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Pavlovic L.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CClear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.