Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau — Wimbledon Qualifying Round
Diaz Acosta F.
Facundo Diaz Acosta faces Alexis Galarneau in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Alexis Galarneau holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Facundo Diaz Acosta 114 games in 14 days, Alexis Galarneau 145.
- Under pressure: Facundo Diaz Acosta has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 56 vs Alexis Galarneau's 24).
- Head-to-head: Alexis Galarneau leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Canada Masters 2024.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDiaz Acosta F.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 114 games (7d) · Galarneau A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Q1 | hard | Alexis Galarneau | 6-4 6-4 |