Keegan Smith vs Moez EcharguiWimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#195ATP
1421ELO
1411Grass ELO
28 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
#194ATP
1416ELO
1388Grass ELO
$171kYTD
$469kCAREER
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLWLL
Smith K.
4-6 6-3 6-7
Echargui M.
Smith K.
4661
Echargui M.
6372

Moez Echargui defeated Keegan Smith in the semifinals of Wimbledon, advancing with a 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 victory. Echargui hit 5 aces and 4 double faults, while converting 50% of break points and winning 73% of first-serve points. Smith had 14 aces and 2 double faults, winning 80% of first-serve points and converting 17% of break points; both players earned one service break.

Key context

  • Match story: Moez Echargui closed it out in three sets, 6–4 3–6 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
74%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
61%
Return points won·Even
34%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.8
4.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.7
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
26
4
Break points saved·Dominant
84
48
Break points won·Slight edge
3
11
Deciding sets·Dominant
48
4
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
42

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Smith K.48%
Echargui M.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0+3 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Grass Elo 1508
5.6Overall Elo 1555
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1504
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.14 of last 7 on grass
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
94
84

Smith K.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Echargui M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
35°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw