Keegan Smith vs Moez Echargui — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final
Smith K.
Keegan Smith faces Moez Echargui in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Moez Echargui holds the paper edge — ranked #155.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Keegan Smith comes in with 8 days of rest and 110 games in 14d, vs Moez Echargui's 7 and 19.
- Last match: Moez Echargui dropped the opening set before beating Edas Butvilas 3–6 7–5 6–3.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSmith K.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Echargui M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.