Andres Andrade vs Colton SmithWimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Round
1518ELO
1459Grass ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLWWLWW
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
grass
#177ATP
1581ELO
1559Grass ELO
$152kYTD
$478kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10
LWLLWWWWWW
Andrade A.
vs
Smith C.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:37 UTC
Andrade A.25%
Smith C.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Smith C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Grass Elo 1459
Surface ELO
6.3+100 Grass Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1518
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1581
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Smith C.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

35 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Even
59%
61%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.4
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Andrade A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Smith C.

Smith C.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Andrade A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
44
62
Break points saved·Dominant
53
94
Break points won·Even
50
52
Deciding sets·Dominant
45
92
Tiebreaks·Dominant
94
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
92
82

Andrade A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Smith C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CClear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.