Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
Stefano Travaglia
ITA
Stefano Travaglia
#130ATP
1574ELO
1454Grass ELO
$171kYTD
$2.8MCAREER
34 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLWWWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
CHN
Yi Zhou
#239ATP
1455ELO
1428Grass ELO
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWLLLL
Travaglia S.
vs
Zhou Y.

Stefano Travaglia faces Yi Zhou in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Stefano Travaglia holds the paper edge — ranked #130, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Travaglia S.73%
Zhou Y.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Travaglia S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Travaglia S.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Zhou Y.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+26 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Grass Elo 1428
6.5Overall Elo 1574
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1455
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.93 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.35 of last 7 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Travaglia S.Stable
Zhou Y.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

35 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Travaglia S.Zhou Y.
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Even
5.7
6.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Travaglia S.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Zhou Y.

Zhou Y.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Travaglia S.

Serve advantage — Travaglia S.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Travaglia S.Zhou Y.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
33
14
Break points saved·Slight edge
81
87
Break points won·Clear edge
34
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
43
0
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
11
18

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Travaglia S.Zhou Y.
Freshness·Clear edge
83
69

Travaglia S.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Zhou Y.: 4 days rest · 4 matches, 92 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.