Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
GBR
Oliver Tarvet
#349ATP
1504ELO
1544Grass ELO
22 yrs
Last 10
WWLLWWLLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
GRE
Stefanos Sakellaridis
#146ATP
1634ELO
1542Grass ELO
$122kYTD
$338kCAREER
21 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWWW
Tarvet O.
vs
Sakellaridis S.

Oliver Tarvet faces Stefanos Sakellaridis in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Tarvet O.27%
Sakellaridis S.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sakellaridis S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Oliver Tarvet carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Stage: Oliver Tarvet defends last year's round of 64.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 6 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tarvet O.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Sakellaridis S.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0+1 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Grass Elo 1542
3.4Overall Elo 1504
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1634
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.04 of last 6 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
8.8Home country · 8/10 here
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tarvet O.Not enough recent matches
Sakellaridis S.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

1 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
Tarvet O.Sakellaridis S.
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
67%
64%
Return points won·Clear edge
23%
40%
Break points saved·Dominant
100%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
6.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tarvet O.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Sakellaridis S.

Sakellaridis S.serving93% hold

wins 73% of points on serve vs Tarvet O.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load
Tarvet O.Sakellaridis S.
Freshness·Even
77
74

Tarvet O.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Sakellaridis S.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 65 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-3 0-0
Kwon S.
Gea A.
5-7 4-1
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
4-6 0-0
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.
5-73-6
Gaston H.
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
5-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
3-1
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
4-64-6
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
7.7-6.5 2-2
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
6-46-3
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.
4-64-6
—
Faria J.
—
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.
Smith C.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Echargui M.
Skatov T.
—
Llamas Ruiz P.
Boyer T.
—
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Bertola R.
Sweeny D.
Barrios Vera T.
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
C. O'Connell
—
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Kym J.
Zhou Y.
Harris B.