Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkate — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
Nicolas Mejia
COL
Nicolas Mejia
#168ATP
1486ELO
1443Grass ELO
$141kYTD
$522kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLLWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
AUS
Tristan Schoolkate
#147ATP
1550ELO
1534Grass ELO
$246kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLLWLL
Mejia N.
vs
Schoolkate T.

Nicolas Mejia faces Tristan Schoolkate in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Tristan Schoolkate holds the paper edge — ranked #147, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 90-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Mejia N.25%
Schoolkate T.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Schoolkate T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mejia N.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Schoolkate T.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.9Grass Elo 1443
Surface ELO
6.1+91 Grass Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1486
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1550
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.63 of last 6 on grass
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Mejia N.Sliding
Schoolkate T.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Mejia N.Schoolkate T.
1st serve in·Even
60%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.7
7.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mejia N.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Schoolkate T.

Schoolkate T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Mejia N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Mejia N.Schoolkate T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
21
48
Break points saved·Clear edge
74
90
Break points won·Slight edge
6
0
Deciding sets·Dominant
32
85
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
32
39

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Mejia N.Schoolkate T.
Freshness·Slight edge
74
85

Mejia N.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Schoolkate T.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-19Winston-SalemQ2hardTristan Schoolkate7-6(7) 7-6(6)

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-3 1-2
Kwon S.
Gea A.
5-7 4-3
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
4-6 2-1
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.
5-73-6
Gaston H.
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
6.9-6.8
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
6-2 0-0
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
4-64-6
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
7.7-6.5 3-3
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
6-46-3
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.
4-64-6
—
Faria J.
—
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.
Smith C.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Echargui M.
Skatov T.
—
Llamas Ruiz P.
Boyer T.
—
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Bertola R.
Sweeny D.
Barrios Vera T.
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
C. O'Connell
—
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Kym J.
Zhou Y.
Harris B.