Marco Cecchinato vs Tomas Barrios VeraWimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Round
#167ATP
1558ELO
1429Grass ELO
$149kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLWLW
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
grass
#137ATP
1632ELO
1584Grass ELO
$203kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
28 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWLWWW
Cecchinato M.
vs
Barrios Vera T.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Cecchinato M.27%
Barrios Vera T.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Barrios Vera T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Grass Elo 1429
Surface ELO
6.9+155 Grass Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1558
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1632
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.32 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

33 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
64%
61%
Aces / match·Even
3.2
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cecchinato M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Barrios Vera T.

Barrios Vera T.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Cecchinato M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
42
59
Break points saved·Even
89
85
Break points won·Clear edge
20
43
Deciding sets·Clear edge
35
59
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
81
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
62
89

Cecchinato M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 68 games (7d) · Barrios Vera T.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CClear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.