Soon Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
Soon Woo Kwon
KOR
Soon Woo Kwon
1759ELO
1603Grass ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWWWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
FRA
Arthur Gea
#132ATP
1614ELO
1507Grass ELO
$348kYTD
$600kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLWWW
Kwon S.
vs
Gea A.

Soon Woo Kwon faces Arthur Gea in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Soon Woo Kwon holds the paper edge — a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Kwon S.84%
Gea A.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Kwon S. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Soon Woo Kwon 57 games in 14 days, Arthur Gea 110.
  • Under pressure: Soon Woo Kwon has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 67 vs Arthur Gea's 36).
  • Surface form: Both 2 of 4 on grass recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kwon S.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Gea A.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+96 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Grass Elo 1507
6.8Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1614
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.94 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.03 of last 5 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kwon S.Stable
Gea A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Kwon S.Gea A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
54%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
80%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
68%
65%
Return points won·Even
43%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
70%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.6
5.5
Double faults / match·Even
3.5
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kwon S.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Gea A.

Gea A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Kwon S.

Serve advantage — Kwon S.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kwon S.Gea A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
67
36
Break points saved·Clear edge
94
81
Break points won·Slight edge
33
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
77
20
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
95
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kwon S.Gea A.
Freshness·Clear edge
88
75

Kwon S.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Gea A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-606-68
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-75-6
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-24-5
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-32-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
—
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
—
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
—
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
—
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.