Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino — Wimbledon Qualifying Round
Clarke J.
Jay Clarke faces Andrea Pellegrino in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Andrea Pellegrino holds the paper edge — ranked #133, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Pellegrino A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jay Clarke 102 games in 14 days, Andrea Pellegrino 0.
- Under pressure: Andrea Pellegrino has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 55 vs Jay Clarke's 8).
- Stage: Jay Clarke defends last year's round of 128.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadClarke J.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 85 games (7d) · Pellegrino A.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.