Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
USA
Colton Smith
#188ATP
1581ELO
1559Grass ELO
$152kYTD
$478kCAREER
23 yrs
Last 10
WWLWLLWWWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
USA
Michael Zheng
#143ATP
1683ELO
1522Grass ELO
$307kYTD
$500kCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLWWWLL
Smith C.
vs
Zheng M.

Colton Smith faces Michael Zheng in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Michael Zheng is the paper favourite — ranked #143 — but Colton Smith arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on grass to Michael Zheng's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Smith C.41%
Zheng M.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Zheng M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Colton Smith carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Colton Smith 3 of 4, Michael Zheng 2 of 4 on grass recently — Colton Smith the sharper of late.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Smith C.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Zheng M.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.5+37 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Grass Elo 1522
3.7Overall Elo 1581
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1683
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.46 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.62 of last 5 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Smith C.Stable
Zheng M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
Smith C.Zheng M.
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
3.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
0.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Smith C.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Zheng M.

Zheng M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Smith C.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Smith C.Zheng M.
Freshness·Even
76
80

Smith C.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Zheng M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-3 1-2
Kwon S.
Gea A.
5-7 4-3
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
4-6 2-1
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.
5-73-6
Gaston H.
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
6.9-6.8
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
6-2 0-0
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
4-64-6
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
7.7-6.5 3-3
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
6-46-3
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.
4-64-6
—
Faria J.
—
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.
Smith C.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Echargui M.
Skatov T.
—
Llamas Ruiz P.
Boyer T.
—
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Bertola R.
Sweeny D.
Barrios Vera T.
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
C. O'Connell
—
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Kym J.
Zhou Y.
Harris B.