Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
ESP
Alejandro Moro Canas
#233ATP
1547ELO
1497Grass ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWWLWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Harold Mayot
FRA
Harold Mayot
#201ATP
1581ELO
1505Grass ELO
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLWWWW
Moro Canas A.
vs
Mayot H.

Alejandro Moro Canas faces Harold Mayot in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Harold Mayot holds the paper edge — ranked #201.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Moro Canas A.39%
Mayot H.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mayot H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Moro Canas A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Mayot H.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Grass Elo 1497
Surface ELO
5.1+8 Grass Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1547
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1581
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.67 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
1.51 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Moro Canas A.Stable
Mayot H.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

33 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
Moro Canas A.Mayot H.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.2
4.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Moro Canas A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Mayot H.

Mayot H.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Moro Canas A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Moro Canas A.Mayot H.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
24
29
Break points saved·Slight edge
82
92
Break points won·Clear edge
35
22
Deciding sets·Clear edge
20
32
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
5
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Moro Canas A.Mayot H.
Freshness·Slight edge
85
92

Moro Canas A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Mayot H.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-606-68
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-75-6
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-24-5
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-32-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
—
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
—
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
—
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
—
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.