Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia — Wimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Round

POR

Henrique Rocha

#122ATP

1690ELO

1551Grass ELO

$197kYTD

$880kCAREER

22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWWWWWWWW

—

Sets

Monday, 22 June 2026 · 15:30

grass

COL

Nicolas Mejia

#164ATP

1486ELO

1443Grass ELO

$141kYTD

$522kCAREER

26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLLLWLWLL

Rocha H.

Mejia N.

Henrique Rocha faces Nicolas Mejia in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Henrique Rocha holds the paper edge — ranked #122, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:37 UTC

Rocha H.82%

Mejia N.18%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rocha H. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Henrique Rocha comes in with 6 days of rest and 87 games in 14d, vs Nicolas Mejia's 4 and 51.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Henrique Rocha has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 44 vs 22).

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rocha H.

7.0

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Mejia N.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

6.4+108 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.6Grass Elo 1443

7.6Overall Elo 1690

ELO gap

2.4Overall Elo 1486

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.84 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

6.0Reached qualifying here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Rocha H.Stable

Mejia N.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

34 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season

Rocha H.Mejia N.

1st serve in·Even

63%

60%

1st serve points won·Even

70%

69%

2nd serve points won·Even

51%

53%

Service points won·Even

63%

Return points won·Even

41%

38%

Break points saved·Even

58%

60%

Aces / match·Clear edge

2.6

4.7

Double faults / match·Clear edge

3.3

2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Rocha H.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Mejia N.

Mejia N.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rocha H.

Serve advantage — Rocha H.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Rocha H.Mejia N.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Rocha H.Mejia N.

Freshness·Even

Rocha H.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Mejia N.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

26°CClear

Wind 18 km/hHumidity 57%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.