Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
AUS
Dane Sweeny
#126ATP
1489ELO
1388Grass ELO
$212kYTD
$816kCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWLLLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
USA
Darwin Blanch
#225ATP
1569ELO
1484Grass ELO
18 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWWLLL
Sweeny D.
vs
Blanch D.

Dane Sweeny faces Darwin Blanch in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Dane Sweeny holds the paper edge — ranked #126. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Sweeny D.22%
Blanch D.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Blanch D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sweeny D.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Blanch D.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
3.8Grass Elo 1388
Surface ELO
6.2+96 Grass Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1489
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1569
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.64 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sweeny D.Stable
Blanch D.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season
Sweeny D.Blanch D.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Even
62%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.9
6.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.8
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sweeny D.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Blanch D.

Blanch D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sweeny D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Sweeny D.Blanch D.
Freshness·Slight edge
77
82

Sweeny D.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Blanch D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.