Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
Clement Tabur
FRA
Clement Tabur
#191ATP
1605ELO
1472Grass ELO
$197kYTD
$638kCAREER
26 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
Shintaro Mochizuki
JPN
Shintaro Mochizuki
#150ATP
1456ELO
1511Grass ELO
$236kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLLLLL
Tabur C.
vs
Mochizuki S.

Clement Tabur faces Shintaro Mochizuki in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Shintaro Mochizuki holds the paper edge — ranked #150, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 40-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Tabur C.74%
Mochizuki S.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tabur C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tabur C.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mochizuki S.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Grass Elo 1472
Surface ELO
5.5+39 Grass Elo edge
6.9Overall Elo 1605
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1456
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.63 of last 6 on grass
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tabur C.Cooling
Mochizuki S.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

33 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Tabur C.Mochizuki S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
52%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
56%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.4
2.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.5
6.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tabur C.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Mochizuki S.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Tabur C.

Serve advantage — Tabur C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Tabur C.Mochizuki S.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
32
49
Break points saved·Even
74
74
Break points won·Dominant
23
55
Deciding sets·Even
45
41
Tiebreaks·Dominant
32
76

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Tabur C.Mochizuki S.
Freshness·Even
75
74

Tabur C.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Mochizuki S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-3 1-2
Kwon S.
Gea A.
5-7 4-3
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
4-6 2-1
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.
5-73-6
Gaston H.
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
6.9-6.9
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
6-2 0-0
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
4-64-6
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
7.7-6.5 3-3
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
6-46-3
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.
4-64-6
—
Faria J.
—
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.
Smith C.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Echargui M.
Skatov T.
—
Llamas Ruiz P.
Boyer T.
—
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Bertola R.
Sweeny D.
Barrios Vera T.
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
C. O'Connell
—
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Kym J.
Zhou Y.
Harris B.