Andrea Guerrieri vs Kyrian Jacquet — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
ITA
Andrea Guerrieri
#229ATP
1545ELO
1473Grass ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWLWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Kyrian Jacquet
FRA
Kyrian Jacquet
#136ATP
1647ELO
1546Grass ELO
$264kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLLWWW
Guerrieri A.
vs
Jacquet K.

Andrea Guerrieri faces Kyrian Jacquet in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Kyrian Jacquet holds the paper edge — ranked #136, a roughly 70-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Guerrieri A.27%
Jacquet K.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jacquet K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Guerrieri A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Jacquet K.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Grass Elo 1473
Surface ELO
5.9+74 Grass Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1545
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1647
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.54 of last 6 on grass
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Guerrieri A.Sliding
Jacquet K.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season
Guerrieri A.Jacquet K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
72%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
45%
41%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
5.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Guerrieri A.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Jacquet K.

Jacquet K.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Guerrieri A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Guerrieri A.Jacquet K.
Freshness·Clear edge
85
68

Guerrieri A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Jacquet K.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 86 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-606-68
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-75-6
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-24-5
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-32-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
—
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
—
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
—
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
—
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.