Timofey Skatov vs Alex BarrenaWimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Round
#176ATP
1569ELO
1496Grass ELO
$107kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWLWWWW
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
grass
#207ATP
1407ELO
1404Grass ELO
$100kYTD
$266kCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLLL
Skatov T.
vs
Barrena A.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Skatov T.87%
Barrena A.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Skatov T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.2+93 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Grass Elo 1404
7.0Overall Elo 1569
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1407
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.35 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 10
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Skatov T.Stable
Barrena A.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

38 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
55%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
55%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Skatov T.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Barrena A.

Barrena A.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Skatov T.

Serve advantage — Skatov T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
32
30
Break points saved·Dominant
81
43
Break points won·Dominant
27
54
Deciding sets·Slight edge
31
20
Tiebreaks·Dominant
35
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
98

Skatov T.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Barrena A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°CClear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.