Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
Elias Ymer
SWE
Elias Ymer
#185ATP
1568ELO
1533Grass ELO
$190kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Timofey Skatov
KAZ
Timofey Skatov
#178ATP
1554ELO
1489Grass ELO
$107kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLWWLWWW
Ymer E.
vs
Skatov T.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC
Ymer E.68%
Skatov T.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ymer E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ymer E.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Skatov T.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+44 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Grass Elo 1489
5.2Overall Elo 1568
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1554
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.76 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.3Won 55% in GBR (20)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Ymer E.Rising
Skatov T.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

22 vs 38 matches

Statistics

This season
Ymer E.Skatov T.
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Even
63%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
3.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Ymer E.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Skatov T.

Skatov T.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Ymer E.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Ymer E.Skatov T.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
48
32
Break points saved·Even
83
81
Break points won·Even
23
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
78
31
Tiebreaks·Even
31
35

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Ymer E.Skatov T.
Freshness·Even
91
90

Ymer E.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Skatov T.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Comesana F.
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.
5-73-6
Faria J.
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.
3-66-74
Wong C.
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.
2-66-73
Gaston H.
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-606-68
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.
4-64-6
Sweeny D.
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-75-6
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.
Meligeni Alves F.
6-24-5
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell
6-734-6
Gaubas V.
Mmoh M.
4-66-32-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.
4-64-6
Safiullin R.
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
Kwon S.
Gea A.
Faria J.
Pavlovic L.
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
Gojo B.
Smith C.
Djere L.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Cina F.
Smith K.
Echargui M.
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
Budkov Kjaer N.
—
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Heide G.
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
Sweeny D.
—
—
Barrios Vera T.
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
—
Carballes Baena R.
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
—
Searle H.
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
Piros Z.
Harris B.