Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
LTU
Vilius Gaubas
#129ATP
1569ELO
1523Grass ELO
$275kYTD
$759kCAREER
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLLWWL
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
Dusan Lajovic
SRB
Dusan Lajovic
#153ATP
1628ELO
1492Grass ELO
$208kYTD
$11MCAREER
35 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWLWLL
Gaubas V.
vs
Lajovic D.

Vilius Gaubas faces Dusan Lajovic in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Vilius Gaubas holds the paper edge — ranked #129, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Gaubas V.43%
Lajovic D.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gaubas V.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Lajovic D.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1492
4.3Overall Elo 1569
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1628
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.15 of last 7 on grass
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
4.1Won 35% in GBR (23)
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year
Heat performance
7.0Plays well in heat

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Gaubas V.Stable
Lajovic D.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Gaubas V.Lajovic D.
1st serve in·Even
66%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.3
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Gaubas V.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Lajovic D.

Lajovic D.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Gaubas V.

Serve advantage — Lajovic D.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Gaubas V.Lajovic D.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
55
61
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
95
Break points won·Clear edge
52
36
Deciding sets·Slight edge
81
74
Tiebreaks·Dominant
7
62

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Gaubas V.Lajovic D.
Freshness·Even
85
85

Gaubas V.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Lajovic D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.
5-73-6
Gaston H.
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
4-64-6
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
6-46-3
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
Faria J.
Sakamoto R.
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.
Smith C.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Echargui M.
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Boyer T.
Budkov Kjaer N.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Bertola R.
Sweeny D.
Barrios Vera T.
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
C. O'Connell
Gaubas V.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Kym J.
Zhou Y.
Harris B.