Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
NOR8
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
#121ATP
1653ELO
1509Grass ELO
$291kYTD
$744kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLLWLW
1 — 3
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
Otto Virtanen
FIN
Otto Virtanen
#137ATP
1694ELO
1672Grass ELO
$193kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLLW
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-4 4-6 4-6 5-7
Virtanen O.
Budkov Kjaer N.
64451
Virtanen O.
46673

Otto Virtanen fought back from a set down to beat Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 4-6 6-4 6-4 7-5 in the Wimbledon qualifying final.

Key context

  • Set 3, game 5: A 13-point game with four deuces went Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's way.
  • Set 4, game 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer converted 3 of 13 break points; Otto Virtanen converted 5 of 13 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Budkov Kjaer N.
Virtanen O.
Break points won
3/13
5/13
Break points saved
8/13
10/13

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Budkov Kjaer N.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Virtanen O.

Virtanen O.serving89% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Budkov Kjaer N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Budkov Kjaer N.Virtanen O.
1st serve in·Even
64%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.9
8.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Budkov Kjaer N.Virtanen O.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
67
45
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
94
Break points won·Dominant
39
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
48
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
81
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC
Budkov Kjaer N.29%
Virtanen O.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Virtanen O. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Budkov Kjaer N.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Virtanen O.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.0Grass Elo 1509
Surface ELO
7.0+163 Grass Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1653
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1694
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.44 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Budkov Kjaer N.Virtanen O.
Freshness·Clear edge
71
54

Budkov Kjaer N.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Virtanen O.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 131 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.[18]
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.[21]
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.[26]
5-73-6
Gaston H.[5]
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.[29]
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell[32]
4-64-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-46-3
Travaglia S.[16]
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.[23]
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
4-66-763-6
Faria J.[2]
Sakamoto R.[27]
7-634-66-36-4
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.
6-15-76-23-61-6
Smith C.
Zheng M.
4-66-42-63-6
Gaston H.[5]
Echargui M.[29]
6-15-76-26-4
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-754-64-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Boyer T.
5-77-646-723-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Virtanen O.
6-44-64-65-7
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.
6-46-46-4
Basing M.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-67-56-2
Sweeny D.
Barrios Vera T.
4-66-47-650-66-2
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.
6-46-27-5
Mcdonald M.
C. O'Connell
6-36-46-4
Gaubas V.[14]
Lajovic D.[22]
3-66-43-66-36-4
Safiullin R.
Kym J.
4-67-623-67-666-4
Zhou Y.
Harris B.
6-16-722-63-6