Timofey Skatov vs Kyrian Jacquet — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · ATP · Qualifying Final
Timofey Skatov
KAZ
Timofey Skatov
#178ATP
1554ELO
1489Grass ELO
$107kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLWWLWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
Kyrian Jacquet
FRA
Kyrian Jacquet
#136ATP
1647ELO
1546Grass ELO
$264kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLLWW
Skatov T.
vs
Jacquet K.

Timofey Skatov faces Kyrian Jacquet in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Kyrian Jacquet holds the paper edge — ranked #136, a roughly 60-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Skatov T.23%
Jacquet K.77%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jacquet K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Skatov T.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Jacquet K.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.3Grass Elo 1489
Surface ELO
5.7+57 Grass Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1554
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1647
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.65 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached final qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Skatov T.Stable
Jacquet K.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

38 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season
Skatov T.Jacquet K.
1st serve in·Even
62%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
41%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
5.7
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Skatov T.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Jacquet K.

Jacquet K.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Skatov T.

Serve advantage — Jacquet K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Skatov T.Jacquet K.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
32
47
Break points saved·Slight edge
81
87
Break points won·Even
27
28
Deciding sets·Slight edge
31
40
Tiebreaks·Dominant
39
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Skatov T.Jacquet K.
Freshness·Clear edge
83
69

Skatov T.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Jacquet K.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.
5-73-6
Gaston H.
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell
4-64-6
Gaubas V.
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.
6-46-3
Travaglia S.
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
Faria J.
Sakamoto R.
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.
Smith C.
Zheng M.
Gaston H.
Echargui M.
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.
Llamas Ruiz P.
Boyer T.
Budkov Kjaer N.
Virtanen O.
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.
Basing M.
Bertola R.
Sweeny D.
Barrios Vera T.
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.
Mcdonald M.
C. O'Connell
Gaubas V.
Lajovic D.
Safiullin R.
Kym J.
Zhou Y.
Harris B.