Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei PopyrinWimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
#14ATP
1932ELO
1805Grass ELO
$1.4MYTD
$8.8MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLWLW
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
#100ATP
1761ELO
1625Grass ELO
$540kYTD
$9.6MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWWLWLL
Lehecka J.
vs
Popyrin A.

Jiri Lehecka faces Alexei Popyrin in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Jiri Lehecka holds the paper edge — ranked #14, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 180-point grass Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Lehecka J.86%
Popyrin A.14%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Lehecka J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.3+180 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Grass Elo 1625
7.1Overall Elo 1932
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1761
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.76 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
3.04 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
4.7Won 45% in GBR (22)
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 16 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
55%
Service points won·Even
66%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
31%
Break points saved·Clear edge
71%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.3
11.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
0.8
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Lehecka J.serving95% hold

wins 76% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Popyrin A.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Lehecka J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
86
59
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Dominant
62
6
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
75
Tiebreaks·Even
96
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
83
86

Lehecka J.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Popyrin A.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-03RotterdamR32hardJiri Lehecka7-5 6-2
2024-03-18Miami MastersR64hardAlexei Popyrin6-4 6-4

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final