Alex De Minaur vs Roman Andres Burruchaga — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · ATP · Round of 128
Alex De Minaur
AUS
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1966ELO
1837Grass ELO
$2.3MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLWL
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Roman Andres Burruchaga
ARG
Roman Andres Burruchaga
#66ATP
1724ELO
1578Grass ELO
$446kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWLWLW
De Minaur A.
vs
Burruchaga R.

Alex De Minaur faces Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Alex De Minaur holds the paper edge — ranked #6, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 260-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
De Minaur A.93%
Burruchaga R.7%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · De Minaur A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Burruchaga R.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.2+259 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.8Grass Elo 1578
8.0Overall Elo 1966
ELO gap
2.0Overall Elo 1724
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.96 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.7Won 62% in GBR (37)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

De Minaur A.Rising
Burruchaga R.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

23 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Burruchaga R.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
43%
Break points saved·Even
67%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
2.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Burruchaga R.

Burruchaga R.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Burruchaga R.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
95
67
Break points saved·Dominant
99
68
Break points won·Clear edge
97
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
84
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on grass

De Minaur A.Burruchaga R.
—
Serve
—
80
Return
—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Burruchaga R.
Freshness·Even
83
83

De Minaur A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Comesana F.[1]
Moro Canas A.
6-46-754-6
Moreno De Alboran N.
Mayot H.
2-62-6
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Kwon S.
6-773-6
Brancaccio R.
Gea A.[18]
5-73-6
Faria J.[2]
Grenier H.
6-36-3
Lajal M.
Pavlovic L.
4-64-6
Chidekh C.
Dougaz A.
4-64-6
Matusevich A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
6-766-33-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Dellien H.
6-46-0
Gomez F.
Tabur C.
3-64-6
Giustino L.
Onclin G.
3-65-7
Sachko V.
Mochizuki S.[21]
3-66-74
Wong C.[4]
Gojo B.
6-7102-6
Andrade A.
Smith C.
3-66-43-6
Djere L.
Houkes M.
6-47-5
Squire H.
Zheng M.[26]
2-66-73
Gaston H.[5]
Midon L.
4-66-36-4
Cadenasso G.
Cina F.
3-62-6
Smith K.
Ficovich J.
6-17-64
Butvilas E.
Echargui M.[29]
6-35-73-6
Basilashvili N.[6]
Ymer E.
6-23-66-78
Skatov T.
Barrena A.
6-37-64
Guerrieri A.
Goffin D.
3-67-56-2
Boscardin Dias P.
Jacquet K.[25]
1-66-73
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Added D.
6-26-4
Bailly G.
Martin Tiffon P.
4-64-6
Boyer T.
Olivieri G.
6-16-4
Clarke J.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-754-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Reis Da Silva J.
6-46-766-1
Dodig M.
Ferreira Silva F.
3-67-607-65
Noguchi R.
Nardi L.
2-63-6
Virtanen O.
Martinez P.[19]
6-41-66-1
Rocha H.[9]
Mejia N.
4-67-662-6
Tseng C.
Heide G.
6-784-6
Prado Angelo J.
Evans D.
6-723-6
Monday J.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-73-6
Maestrelli F.[10]
Basing M.
6-46-724-6
Gentzsch T.
Kolar Z.
6-36-3
Draxl L.
Bertola R.
6-26-731-6
Crawford O.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-64-6
Sweeny D.[11]
Roncadelli F.
6-46-2
Blanch D.
Blanchet U.
Herbert P.
Jubb P.
5-76-76
Cecchinato M.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
6-723-6
Diaz Acosta F.[12]
Galarneau A.
2-62-6
Tarvet O.
Bolt A.
7-637-5
Coria F.
Bonding O.
7-656-2
Hsu Y.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
4-62-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Meligeni Alves F.
6-26-756-3
M. Ceban
Carballes Baena R.
2-64-6
Uchida K.
Tomic B.
3-62-6
Schwaerzler J.
C. O'Connell[32]
6-734-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Mmoh M.
4-66-36-2
Zhang Z.
Searle H.
3-64-6
Bax F.
Rodesch C.
7-641-64-6
Neumayer L.
Lajovic D.[22]
4-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Mccabe J.
6-37-64
Glinka D.
Coppejans K.
4-63-6
Kym J.
Bueno G.
4-67-56-1
Broady L.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-766-45-7
Travaglia S.[16]
Mikrut L.
7-57-63
Den Ouden G.
Zhou Y.
4-64-6
Piros Z.
Ivanov I.
6-26-2
Napolitano S.
Harris B.[23]
2-62-6
Moro Canas A.
Mayot H.
6-37-63
Kwon S.
Gea A.[18]
5-76-36-4
Faria J.[2]
Pavlovic L.
6-46-4
Dougaz A.
Sakamoto R.[27]
4-64-6
Yunchaokete B.[3]
Tabur C.
7-56-744-6
Onclin G.
Mochizuki S.[21]
2-66-43-6
Gojo B.
Smith C.
4-64-6
Djere L.
Zheng M.[26]
5-73-6
Gaston H.[5]
Cina F.
7-56-4
Smith K.
Echargui M.[29]
4-66-36-76
Ymer E.
Skatov T.
4-61-6
Guerrieri A.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-794-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Martin Tiffon P.
6-46-2
Boyer T.
Pellegrino A.[17]
6-26-1
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Dodig M.
6-27-64
Nardi L.
Virtanen O.
4-64-6
Mejia N.
Heide G.
6-46-3
Evans D.
Schoolkate T.[28]
5-70-6
Basing M.
Gentzsch T.
7-56-2
Bertola R.
Rodionov J.[30]
4-67-646-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Blanch D.
2-67-674-0
Jubb P.
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-31-6
Galarneau A.
Tarvet O.
5-72-6
Coria F.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
3-64-6
Mcdonald M.[13]
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-4
Tomic B.
C. O'Connell[32]
4-64-6
Gaubas V.[14]
Searle H.
7-657-65
Rodesch C.
Lajovic D.[22]
2-64-6
Safiullin R.[15]
Coppejans K.
7-627-5
Kym J.
Holmgren A.[24]
6-46-3
Travaglia S.[16]
Zhou Y.
6-774-6
Piros Z.
Harris B.[23]
4-64-6
Moro Canas A.
Kwon S.
4-66-763-6
Faria J.[2]
Sakamoto R.[27]
7-634-66-36-4
Tabur C.
Mochizuki S.[21]
6-15-76-23-61-6
Smith C.
Zheng M.[26]
4-66-42-63-6
Gaston H.[5]
Echargui M.[29]
6-15-76-26-4
Skatov T.
Jacquet K.[25]
6-754-64-6
Llamas Ruiz P.[7]
Boyer T.
5-77-646-723-6
Budkov Kjaer N.[8]
Virtanen O.
6-44-64-65-7
Mejia N.
Schoolkate T.[28]
6-46-46-4
Basing M.
Bertola R.
2-66-43-67-56-2
Sweeny D.[11]
Barrios Vera T.[20]
4-66-47-650-66-2
Tarvet O.
Sakellaridis S.[31]
6-46-27-5
Mcdonald M.[13]
C. O'Connell[32]
6-36-46-4
Gaubas V.[14]
Lajovic D.[22]
3-66-43-66-36-4
Safiullin R.[15]
Kym J.
4-67-623-67-666-4
Zhou Y.
Harris B.[23]
6-16-722-63-6