Emma Navarro vs Paula Badosa — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 128
Emma Navarro
USA
Emma Navarro
#24WTA
1824ELO
1727Grass ELO
$617kYTD
$6.3MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWWLL
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Paula Badosa
ESP
Paula Badosa
#140WTA
1759ELO
1614Grass ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLLLLWW
Navarro E.
vs
Badosa P.

Emma Navarro faces Paula Badosa in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Emma Navarro is the paper favourite — ranked #24, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage — but Paula Badosa has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Navarro E.70%
Badosa P.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Navarro E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Navarro E.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Badosa P.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+113 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Grass Elo 1614
5.2Overall Elo 1824
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1759
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
6.77 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Navarro E.Surging
Badosa P.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

14 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Navarro E.Badosa P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
39%
Service points won·Even
58%
56%
Return points won·Even
41%
43%
Break points saved·Even
52%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.9
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
7.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Navarro E.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Navarro E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Navarro E.Badosa P.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
95
Break points won·Slight edge
99
94
Deciding sets·Even
93
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Navarro E.Badosa P.
Freshness·Dominant
44
89

Navarro E.: 1 day rest · 6 matches, 142 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-16BerlinR16grassPaula Badosa7-6(2) 6-3
2024-08-26US OpenQFhardEmma Navarro6-2 7-5
2024-05-06RomeR64clayPaula Badosa1-6 6-4 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Sebov K.
Ortenzi J.
4-66-36-2
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Podrez V.
6-46-2
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
7-53-65-7
Krueger A.[2]
Hontama M.
6-35-76-3
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
7-676-2
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-31-60-4
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-26-2
Volynets K.[5]
E. Yaneva
6-16-4
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Hibino N.
6-41-66-2
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.[7]
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.[27]
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.[9]
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.[25]
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-52-61-6
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ngounoue C.
6-16-2
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.[22]
7-54-60-6
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
6-36-2
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
7-614-63-6
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.[14]
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.[32]
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
S. Hunter
5-76-17-5
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-746-16-4
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-46-744-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.[30]
2-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Watson H.
3-66-26-1
Krueger A.[2]
Iatcenko P.
7-686-1
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
6-26-0
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
6-31-61-6
Volynets K.[5]
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-64-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Gasanova A.
4-62-6
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
6-24-66-1
Tan H.
Grant T.
4-66-75
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
7-55-71-6
Gjorcheska L.
Bronzetti L.[20]
6-16-2
Kudermetova P.[11]
Charaeva A.[22]
4-66-46-1
Bolkvadze M.
Vandromme J.
6-44-66-3
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
4-66-37-65
Kawa K.[14]
Day K.[32]
2-65-7
Sasnovich A.[15]
Andreescu B.
3-66-74
Kostovic T.
Zhu L.[30]
6-36-4