Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
Katarzyna Kawa
POL
Katarzyna Kawa
#121WTA
1668ELO
1547Grass ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWLLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
USA
Kayla Day
#138WTA
1608ELO
1427Grass ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLWLWW
Kawa K.
vs
Day K.

Katarzyna Kawa faces Kayla Day in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Katarzyna Kawa holds the paper edge — ranked #121, a roughly 120-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Kawa K.61%
Day K.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kawa K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kawa K.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Day K.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.5+120 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Grass Elo 1427
4.4Overall Elo 1668
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1608
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.86 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on grass
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kawa K.Cooling
Day K.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 37 matches

Statistics

This season
Kawa K.Day K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
60%
Return points won·Even
47%
48%
Break points saved·Even
54%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.2
3.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kawa K.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Day K.

Day K.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Kawa K.

Serve advantage — Day K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kawa K.Day K.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
50
37
Break points saved·Dominant
16
66
Break points won·Slight edge
93
88
Deciding sets·Dominant
86
22
Tiebreaks·Dominant
79
52

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kawa K.Day K.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
88

Kawa K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Day K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Maristany Zuleta De Reales G.
Ortenzi J.
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
6-4 0-0
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
7-5 3-6 3-2
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
6-35-76-3
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
5-4
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-3 0-3
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.
6-26-2
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
6-16-4
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
6-41-66-2
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-52-61-6
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
6-16-2
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
7-5 0-0
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
6-3 1-1
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
7.7-6.1 4-6 1-1
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
5-76-17-5
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6.4-7.7 6-1 5-2
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-4 6.4-7.7 3-3
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.
2-63-6
—
Krueger A.
—
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
—
Montgomery R.
Volynets K.
Jeanjean L.
Semenistaja D.
Gasanova A.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Tan H.
Grant T.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
Gjorcheska L.
Bronzetti L.
Kudermetova P.
—
—
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
Kawa K.
Day K.
Sasnovich A.
—
—
Zhu L.