Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia GasanovaWimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Round
#175WTA
1587ELO
1469Grass ELO
40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWLLLL
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
#210WTA
1499ELO
1436Grass ELO
27 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWLWLLL
Lepchenko V.
vs
Gasanova A.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Lepchenko V.75%
Gasanova A.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lepchenko V. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.4+33 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1436
4.8Overall Elo 1587
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1499
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.44 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.53 of last 7 on grass
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
7.0Last match 2h28m
3.9Won 32% in GBR (22)
Country comfort
3.0Clay → Grass
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

20 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
48%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.5
1.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Lepchenko V.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Gasanova A.

Gasanova A.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Lepchenko V.

Serve advantage — Gasanova A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
48
32
Break points saved·Dominant
64
21
Break points won·Dominant
65
100
Deciding sets·Even
72
70
Tiebreaks·Dominant
45
3

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
97

Lepchenko V.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.