Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
Maria Timofeeva
UZB1
Maria Timofeeva
#92WTA
1727ELO
1461Grass ELO
22 yrs · 167 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
Heather Watson
GBRWC
Heather Watson
#491WTA
1572ELO
1505Grass ELO
34 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLLLWW
Timofeeva M.
3-6 6-2 6-1
Watson H.
Timofeeva M.
3662
Watson H.
6211

Maria Timofeeva recovered from a set down to defeat Heather Watson 3-6 6-2 6-1 in the Wimbledon qualifying final.

Key context

  • Set 2, game 8: A 15-point game with five deuces went Maria Timofeeva's way.
  • Set 3, game 2: Maria Timofeeva broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Maria Timofeeva converted 6 of 17 break points; Heather Watson converted 3 of 5 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Timofeeva M.
Watson H.
Break points won
6/17
3/5
Break points saved
2/5
11/17

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Timofeeva M.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Watson H.

Watson H.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Timofeeva M.

Serve advantage — Timofeeva M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Timofeeva M.Watson H.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
41%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
49%
42%
Break points saved·Even
57%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Timofeeva M.Watson H.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
54
23
Break points saved·Dominant
76
43
Break points won·Dominant
96
62
Deciding sets·Even
60
56
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
20
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC
Timofeeva M.63%
Watson H.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Timofeeva M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Timofeeva M.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Watson H.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.4Grass Elo 1461
Surface ELO
5.6+45 Grass Elo edge
7.1Overall Elo 1727
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1572
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
3.62 of last 7 on grass
Surface form
4.74 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.8Home country · 26/55 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Timofeeva M.Watson H.
Freshness·Slight edge
77
68

Timofeeva M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Watson H.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Sebov K.
Ortenzi J.
4-66-36-2
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Podrez V.
6-46-2
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
7-53-65-7
Krueger A.[2]
Hontama M.
6-35-76-3
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
7-676-2
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-31-60-4
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-26-2
Volynets K.[5]
E. Yaneva
6-16-4
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Hibino N.
6-41-66-2
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.[7]
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.[27]
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.[9]
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.[25]
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-52-61-6
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ngounoue C.
6-16-2
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.[22]
7-54-60-6
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
6-36-2
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
7-614-63-6
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.[14]
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.[32]
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
S. Hunter
5-76-17-5
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-746-16-4
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-46-744-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.[30]
2-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Watson H.
3-66-26-1
Krueger A.[2]
Iatcenko P.
7-686-1
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
6-26-0
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
6-31-61-6
Volynets K.[5]
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-64-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Gasanova A.
4-62-6
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
6-24-66-1
Tan H.
Grant T.
4-66-75
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
7-55-71-6
Gjorcheska L.
Bronzetti L.[20]
6-16-2
Kudermetova P.[11]
Charaeva A.[22]
4-66-46-1
Bolkvadze M.
Vandromme J.
6-44-66-3
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
4-66-37-65
Kawa K.
Day K.
2-65-7
Sasnovich A.[15]
Andreescu B.
3-66-74
Kostovic T.
Zhu L.[30]
6-36-4