Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif — Wimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Round

GBR

Heather Watson

#491WTA

1572ELO

1505Grass ELO

34 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLLLLWWLL

—

Sets

Tuesday, 23 June 2026 · 11:00

grass

EGY

Mayar Sherif

#110WTA

1608ELO

1459Grass ELO

30 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWLWLWL

Watson H.

Sherif M.

Heather Watson faces Mayar Sherif in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Heather Watson is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage — but Mayar Sherif rides a 5-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC

Watson H.55%

Sherif M.45%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Heather Watson 0 games in 14 days, Mayar Sherif 132.
Under pressure: Mayar Sherif has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 62 vs Heather Watson's 20).
Win streak: Mayar Sherif arrives on a 5-match winning run.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Watson H.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Sherif M.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

5.6+46 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.4Grass Elo 1459

3.0Overall Elo 1572

ELO gap

7.0Overall Elo 1608

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

2.93 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

2.02 of last 8 on grass

Win streak

9.05-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

6.7Home country · 24/53 here

Country comfort

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

6.0Reached the R128 here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Watson H.Stable

Sherif M.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

12 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season

Watson H.Sherif M.

1st serve in·Clear edge

58%

78%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

69%

58%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

41%

47%

Service points won·Even

58%

56%

Return points won·Even

42%

46%

Break points saved·Even

53%

54%

Aces / match·Clear edge

2.9

0.9

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.5

1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Watson H.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sherif M.

Sherif M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Watson H.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Watson H.Sherif M.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Watson H.Sherif M.

Freshness·Dominant

100

Watson H.: 15 days rest · Sherif M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 100 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

25°CClear

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2022-01-17	Australian Open	R128	hard	Heather Watson	6-3 5-7 6-2