Caroline Uebelhoer vs Alina Charaeva — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final
Uebelhoer C.
Caroline Uebelhoer faces Alina Charaeva in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Alina Charaeva is the paper favourite — a roughly 180-point grass Elo advantage — but Caroline Uebelhoer rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Charaeva A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Caroline Uebelhoer rising, Alina Charaeva cooling.
- Last match: Alina Charaeva dropped just 6 games past Elizabeth Mandlik.
- Fatigue load: Alina Charaeva carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadCharaeva A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.