Robin Montgomery vs Elvina Kalieva — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final
Montgomery R.Robin Montgomery faces Elvina Kalieva in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Elvina Kalieva is the paper favourite — ranked #137 — but Robin Montgomery arrives in form, winning all 6 of their last grass matches to Elvina Kalieva's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Montgomery R. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Robin Montgomery comes in with 10 days of rest and 61 games in 14d, vs Elvina Kalieva's 14 and 16.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Robin Montgomery has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 54 vs 14).
- Last match: Elvina Kalieva dropped the opening set before beating Ella Mcdonald 3–6 7–6 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMontgomery R.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Kalieva E.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.