Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
Lulu Sun
NZL
Lulu Sun
#109WTA
1640ELO
1551Grass ELO
25 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLLWWL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Oceane Dodin
FRA
Oceane Dodin
#473WTA
1531ELO
1450Grass ELO
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLWLLL
Sun L.
vs
Dodin O.

Lulu Sun faces Oceane Dodin in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Lulu Sun holds the paper edge — ranked #109, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Sun L.79%
Dodin O.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sun L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sun L.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Dodin O.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.3+100 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Grass Elo 1450
6.7Overall Elo 1640
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1531
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.43 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on grass
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sun L.Stable
Dodin O.Sliding

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

15 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
Sun L.Dodin O.
1st serve in·Even
57%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
43%
Service points won·Even
59%
58%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
60%
48%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.1
3.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.6
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sun L.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Dodin O.

Dodin O.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Sun L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sun L.Dodin O.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
73
27
Break points saved·Dominant
94
48
Break points won·Slight edge
52
44
Deciding sets·Clear edge
90
76
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sun L.Dodin O.
Freshness·
92
—

Sun L.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Timofeeva M.
Osuigwe W.
2-0
Rus A.
Podrez V.
1-1
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-62-3
Watson H.
Sherif M.
2-1
Krueger A.
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-662-1
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6100-0
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
2-4
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.
Volynets K.
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.
5-4
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
2-4
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.
2-64-5
Grabher J.
Bolkvadze M.
4-3
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
1-1
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Maristany Zuleta De Reales G.
Ortenzi J.
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.
Dunne K.
1-66-30-1
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.
6-724-6
Sramkova R.
Hruncakova V.
6-5
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-62-1
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
Barthel M.
Zhu L.
3-0