Iryna Shymanovich vs Katherine Sebov — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
Iryna Shymanovich
BLR
Iryna Shymanovich
#216WTA
1552ELO
1480Grass ELO
28 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLLLLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
CAN
Katherine Sebov
#245WTA
1458ELO
1389Grass ELO
27 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLWLLW
Shymanovich I.
vs
Sebov K.

Iryna Shymanovich faces Katherine Sebov in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Iryna Shymanovich holds the paper edge — ranked #216, a roughly 90-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Shymanovich I.77%
Sebov K.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shymanovich I. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shymanovich I.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Sebov K.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+91 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Grass Elo 1389
5.5Overall Elo 1552
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1458
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.05 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.43 of last 5 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Shymanovich I.Stable
Sebov K.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
Shymanovich I.Sebov K.
1st serve in·Clear edge
58%
79%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
57%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
51%
Service points won·Even
53%
56%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Even
54%
57%
Aces / match·Even
0.8
0.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.7
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Shymanovich I.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Sebov K.

Sebov K.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Shymanovich I.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Shymanovich I.Sebov K.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
36
51
Break points saved·Slight edge
44
53
Break points won·Even
85
83
Deciding sets·Dominant
33
63
Tiebreaks·
73
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Shymanovich I.Sebov K.
Freshness·Even
74
77

Shymanovich I.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Sebov K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Maristany Zuleta De Reales G.
Ortenzi J.
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
6-5
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
6-3 0-2
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.[31]
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
6-1 3-2
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
6-4 1-6 0-0
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-5 2-6 1-3
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
4-4
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
5-7 4-1
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6.0-6.1
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-4 0-0
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.
2-63-6
—
—
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
—
—
Jeanjean L.
—
Gasanova A.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Tan H.
Grant T.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
—
Bronzetti L.
—
—
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
Kawa K.
Day K.
—
—
Zhu L.