Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucrezia StefaniniWimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
#131WTA
1664ELO
1545Grass ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
#144WTA
1527ELO
1492Grass ELO
28 yrs · 164 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW
Kawa K.
6-4 2-6 6-2
Stefanini L.
Kawa K.
6262
Stefanini L.
4621

Katarzyna Kawa defeated Lucrezia Stefanini in the semifinals of Wimbledon, advancing with a 6-4, 2-6, 6-2 victory. Kawa secured 7 service breaks to Stefanini's 6 en route to the win. The match marked a semifinal exit for Stefanini.

Key context

  • Match story: Katarzyna Kawa closed it out in three sets, 6–4 2–6 6–2.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-10-16MonastirR16hardLucrezia Stefanini6-4 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
58%
76%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
54%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
52%
Return points won·Even
48%
47%
Break points saved·Even
55%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
0.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.2
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
51
32
Break points saved·Slight edge
15
26
Break points won·Even
93
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
88
60
Tiebreaks·Dominant
79
19

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Kawa K.72%
Stefanini L.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kawa K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.2+15 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Grass Elo 1500
6.2Overall Elo 1621
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1524
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.16 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on grass
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
69
84

Kawa K.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d) · Stefanini L.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
35°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw