Ashlyn Krueger vs Mai Hontama — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
USA
Ashlyn Krueger
#96WTA
1779ELO
1711Grass ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Mai Hontama
JPN
Mai Hontama
#204WTA
1488ELO
1390Grass ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLWLWWW
Krueger A.
vs
Hontama M.

Ashlyn Krueger faces Mai Hontama in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Ashlyn Krueger holds the paper edge — ranked #96, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 64.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Krueger A.93%
Hontama M.7%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Krueger A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Krueger A.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Hontama M.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
9.0+320 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.0Grass Elo 1390
8.0Overall Elo 1779
ELO gap
2.0Overall Elo 1488
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
9.29 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on grass
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Krueger A.Rising
Hontama M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Krueger A.Hontama M.
1st serve in·Even
68%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
54%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
52%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.1
1.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.6
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Krueger A.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Hontama M.

Hontama M.serving77% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Krueger A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Krueger A.Hontama M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
75
29
Break points saved·Dominant
87
27
Break points won·Slight edge
85
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
90
33
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
49
60

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Krueger A.Hontama M.
Freshness·Slight edge
86
91

Krueger A.: 9 days rest · 5 matches (14d) · Hontama M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
34°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-09-11OsakaSFhardAshlyn Krueger6-3 6-3

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Timofeeva M.
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.
6-26-2
Krueger A.
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.
2-64-6
Grabher J.
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Maristany Zuleta De Reales G.
Ortenzi J.
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.
6-724-6
Sramkova R.
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
Riera J.
Crawley F.
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
Gasanova A.
Jones E.
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
Garland J.
Grant T.
Sun L.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
Andreeva E.
Day K.
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.
Sramkova R.
Kostovic T.
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.